November 30, 2015
Human losses of Russia in the period of the great famine of the thirties much exceed the human losses of Ukraine – the Russian demographer Vladimir Timakov has come to such conclusion.
For analysis of the humanitarian catastrophe of 1933 Timakov used
methods of the American demographer of Russian origin Alexander Maksudov
(Babenyshev), who compared the scale of losses by the ratio of survivors of
1933 with survivors of other, more favorable years of birth.
All Soviet and post-Soviet censuses, since 1937 fixed a huge lag in the
birth cohort of 1933. There are significantly less people born in 1933 than
those born in the 1932 or 1934. This is because in the cruelest year of the
famine, people were either refusing to conceive children; either did not bear
the already conceived baby, either newborns quickly died from malnutrition and
weak immunity. It is the fact that babies are the most vulnerable age category
in the face of hunger.
Maksudov himself used this method for localization of the area of
starvation deaths, comparing the size of lags in different regions of the USSR.
So, he came to the conclusion that the mortality in the Kharkov and Kiev
regions was significantly higher than in Voronezh and Kursk, but comparable to
the mortality in the Rostov and Saratov regions. The Ukrainian researchers of
the Holodomor often refer to Maksudov’s works, published by Harvard University
and the Ukrainian Institute of Edmonton (Canada).
Timakov used the Maksudov method to estimate the total magnitude of
losses in the Ukrainian SSR, the RSFSR and Kazakhstan (Kazakh ASSR). However,
he believed that, although the peak of the famine was in the spring of 1933,
the social disaster started to grow at the beginning of collectivization, which
reflects the dynamics of the number of survivors recorded by the census of 1939
(see table):
The
amount of citizens registered during 1939 census (thousands of people)
|
|||
Year
of birth
|
UkrSSR
|
RSFSR
|
KazSSR
|
1929
|
747
|
2892
|
137
|
1930
|
689
|
2746
|
125
|
1931
|
550
|
2512
|
98
|
1932
|
400
|
2214
|
82
|
1933
|
307
|
1897
|
85
|
1934
|
494
|
2036
|
116
|
1935
|
590
|
2342
|
151
|
The
difference between the two best and the two worst years
|
1436
– 707 = 729
|
5
638 – 3 933 = 1 705
|
252
– 167 = 85
|
Timakov came from the fact that the excessive mortality in the Soviet
Union was observed not only at the peak of the famine, in the spring and summer
of 1933, but also - in smaller scale - for several years after "the year
of great change" (1929). And, if the Holodomor in Ukraine and asharshylyk
("famine") in Kazakhstan occurred in 1932-33, in the RSFSR (Russia)
the years of 1933-34 were the most tragic (see table).
The author reported that this method cannot measure the absolute number
of victims of famine, but gives the opportunity to compare the magnitude
of the tragedy in different republics. There is no doubt that the demographic
losses of the RSFSR in the great famine in two and half times higher than the
demographic losses of the Ukrainian SSR.
"Undoubtedly, in Ukraine and in the southern regions of Russia the
scale of the tragedy in April-June, 1933 was, incomparably greater than in
other parts of the RSFSR. However, if we consider the tragedy in a broader time
range, Russia suffered more casualties than Ukraine. Finally, death from
exhaustion after three or four months of intense starvation is not less tragic
than the death from the loss of immunity as a result of years of chronic
malnutrition," - said Timakov.
These figures do not allow us to consider the famine as a specifically
Ukrainian ethnic tragedy, and especially as an act of genocide, aimed at
destroying Ukrainians for the purpose of Russification. As you can see,
Russians suffered along with the Ukrainians, and the Russians lost even more
people than the Ukrainian.
Timakov called giving the famine of 1933 specific ethnic coloring and
use this tragedy to incite ethnic hatred a crime against historical memory of
our peoples.
The main reason for the catastrophe he believes was the destruction of
the agricultural potential of the country as a result of the forced breakdown
of its social life. Similar reasons led to the outbreak of high mortality in
the nineties of the twentieth century.
Despite the
fact that the mortality times of "shock therapy" is not expressed in
such monstrous forms as in the times of the great famine, demographic losses of the
Russian Federation and Ukraine after the collapse of the Soviet system was
higher than the losses of the thirties, says the researcher.