Parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page speaks to a journalist during an interview at his office in Ottawa, Ont., June 2, 2009.
July 07, 2009
Les Whittington
OTTAWA BUREAU
OTTAWA – Canada could shed a total of 1.2 million jobs this year and next, the parliamentary budget watchdog predicts.
Suggesting that Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government has vastly underestimated the impact of the economic recession, Kevin Page says the employment picture is much worse than the federal Conservatives predicted in the January budget.
Page also says the Harper government's claim that it will be able to stop running annual budget deficits in five years cannot be believed. He says that in 2013-14, instead of balancing its books, Ottawa will still run a $16.7 billion deficit, according to those who have seen the independent budget officer's latest findings.
The cumulative federal budget deficit over five years will hit $155.9 billion, Page forecasts. Based on recent government estimates, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's calculations call for a cumulative deficit of only about $100 billion over five years.
Page, appointed parliamentary budget officer last year, has consistently produced economic forecasts that have proven more accurate than those from Flaherty and private-sector economists.
His reports have ruffled feathers in Ottawa. A committee of MPs and senators recently warned that Page, who has made a habit of releasing information to the public when it is released to MPs, should be kept on a shorter leash.
The latest report has been provided to the House of Commons finance committee and will be made public later this week.
In it, Page says the medium-term outlook for employment is "significantly weaker" than predicted in Flaherty's Jan. 27 budget...
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