Ukraine: final calm before the storm – political analysis with Andrew Korybko, 20 June 2014

source: http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_06_20/Ukraine-final-calm-before-the-storm-political-analyst-4367/

The Ukrainian President Petr Poroshenko has announced a 14-point peace plan to de-escalate tensions in the country’s southeastern regions. But a Moscow-based journalist and political observer Andrew Korybko suggests it is going to fail and actually the country is in the final calm before the storm.

The Ukrainian president has outlined his vision for stabilizing the situation during a meeting with the Kiev-controlled authorities of the Donetsk and Lugansk. And noted, in particular, that Ukraine’s Constitution has to be amended to decentralize power in the country.

On the other hand, he ruled out the possibility of negotiations with representatives of self-proclaimed People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk.

Andrew Korybko said that the plan, at least by the number of points, resembles Woodrow Wilson’s famed plan after World War I.

"Ironically enough, if that is his intention, this peace plan is going to fail, because Woodrow Wilson’s 14 points had never passed the Congress," he told Radio VR. "In the same way, if Poroshenko's main aim is to amend the constitution – it might also get stalled in the Ukrainian Parliament."

Korybko also commented on some other points of the peace plan.

"First thing he wants to do - is changing the Constitution to amend it so that the Ukrainians may finally get what the West views as democracy to directly elect their governors," he said.

"He also wants to have a unilateral ceasefire, create a buffer zone with the Russian border about 10 kilometers or 6 miles, if you are back in the US. Declare amnesty for those who had not committed any crimes against Ukraine – a very subjective term. And, even more subjectively, he wants these "mercenaries" to go back to Russia and give them free passage"

But Korybko warned that so much can go wrong with this peace plan,

"When it comes to a ceasefire, it has been tried before," he explained. "Ukrainian military does not have full control over the situation, judging by the recent attacks on the Russian embassy and violence in the eastern region. It is all out of control – they can't control this."

"The buffer zone, for example, is another issue," he went on. "Are they going to mine it, are they going to create fences, what  are they talking about? What happens to settlement on the frontier?"

And with this amnesty: Korybko questioned what exactly IS a crime against Ukraine? After all, the justification for this operation is "anti-terrorism". So, who draws the line? How you define who has committed a crime and can amnesty be guaranteed and did these people commit a crime, to begin with?

"When we look at what Poroshenk had declared about these "mercenaries", there would likely be  humanitarian corridors opened," he supposed. "Because most of the people who would leave to Russia are going to be regular Ukrainian citizens, not any armed pro-federalization activists but this would be painted as anti-Russian propaganda and reverse justification for war crimes."

"They would say that all the people migrating from Ukraine, if you give them a chance, are doing so because they are mercenaries," he went on. "But in reality, Ukrainian minister of Defense Mikhail Koval declared in mid-June that if Ukrainian military is successful in the east, they are going to have special "filtration camps" and they might actually enforce settlements. This would be ethnic and cultural cleansing. People in Donetsk and Lugansk are painfully aware of this. This goes against the Rome convention, Rome statute. It is a crime against humanity. So, more than likely, if given an opportunity to flee, it is in someone's best interests to leave."

He also said that when a state wants to make a successful move against the stalemated defense opposition, they usually need outside support, in this case,US support, which is what they already have. More likely, they are on the verge of a full-blown internal civil war, because American military advisers have been announced at the beginning of the month.

Since May it has been reported that CIA and FBI agencies have been active in Kiev. There are over 40 mln dollars coming from US for "border security" and training of the National Guard and 5 mln dollars in non-lethal military aid – night vision goggles and some body armor that makes killing more efficient. They have mercenary groups all over the country. They are already committing war crimes.

"I think, this is the final clam before the storm. The situation gets very serious," he summed it up. "It a huge offensive, what is going on, aimed against Russia, Iran and China and other theaters."