The situation for the people in Yemen is catastrophic. Doctors Without Borders, which has experience from many war zones, says it is the worst conflict they ever worked in.
The theocratic family dictatorship of Saudi Arabia, with U.S. support, is relentlessly bombing the country and blockading it from all urgently needed supply for the people. The declared aim of the war is to reinstate the Saudi/U.S. selected President Hadi. But no one in Yemen wants Hadi back. He now would not survive there even one day. The UN warns of the danger of mass starvation.
The Houthi supporters and forces aligned with former president Saleh failed to capture the southern harbor town Aden. Infiltrated special forces from the United Arab Emirates directed Saudi air attacks against Houthi positions. After the Saleh forces and the Houthi retreated UAE forces, which include many mercenaries from Pakistan, invaded the city via its airport and from the sea.
Landing ships have been supplying heavy vehicles. TV pictures show newly arrived French Leclerc main battle tanks, Russian build BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles and motorized heavy mortars. Additionally many armored and armed wheeled vehicles have been supplied. This is an invasion force of at least brigade size - some 4-5,000 soldiers. That this operation is so far very well planned and executed lets me believe that it is under direct U.S. supervision.
The newly arrived forces are supported by some local tribes and southern separatist groups. Today the invaders are trying to kick Saleh forces from the Al Anad air base near Aden. The invasion force wants to drive the Houthi not only from the south but also from power up north in the capitol Sanaa. The few planes with humanitarian aid that were allowed to fly into Sanaa are now ordered to land only in Aden. The north of Yemen is thereby completely isolated and cut off from all resources.
But look at this map of tribal areas within Yemen and around it.
Will all those various tribes and local interests agree with a foreign imposed agenda? Will the starving but still well armed Yemenis let those rich troops just pass? Or will they rather fight and sabotage any foreign forces that try to move out of Aden?
No bothered by the U.S.-Saudi war on Yemen AlQaeda in the Arab Peninsula has practically taken over the comparably rich eastern Yemeni governate of Hadhramaut. The 23rd brigade of Yemeni forces holding the governate was, allegedly accidentally, bombed by Saudi jets. AlQaeda also captured the eastern port of AlMukallah and uses it to supply its area. No Saudi air strike hindered its recent expansion. There are rumors that AQAP will soon declare Hadhramaut a new Islamic Emirate under its rule.
Between 1962 and 1970 Egypt fought a war in Yemen against predominately Yemeni forces. Some 25,000 of its soldiers were killed in that war. I expect that the current U.S. supported invasion of Yemen, like the Egyptians, will get bogged down within a month or two.
Meanwhile many Yemeni civilians will silently die from lack of access to water, food and medicine.
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