Washington D.C. - "There's no way Israel is going to [strike] Iran if we don't support it by denying them the right to fly over Iraq" said Zbigniew Brzezinski, the former national security advisor to Jimmy Carter, in a conference organized by the RAND Corporation on June 5th on Iran's domestic and foreign policy. According to Brzezinski, a war with Iran will only hurt the U.S. and Israel and "that is why we have to make sure Israel will not strike. It will be painful, damaging, and would set national rage and fanaticism in Iran."
Brzezinski said that the notion of a military strike against Iran is a "non-starter" for the U.S. since it is already engaged in Afghanistan and Iraq. Among the disastrous consequences of an attack, Brzezinski pointed to the likely reactions from Iran which include destabilizing the situation in Afghanistan and the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting the flow of oil with devastating economic effects globally.
In order for diplomacy to work, Brzezinski stated "the security interests of both countries have to be considered." The solution that the U.S. chooses should allow for some Iranian enrichment, he said, because it is no longer possible to reverse Iran's progress in developing the technology. Therefore, Brzezinski suggested, the U.S. has to find other ways to gain the confidence that Iran is not going to use enrichment for military purposes. "Iranians have said that we are not seeking nuclear weapons, we don't have nuclear weapons, and our religion forbids us to have nuclear weapons" in sharp contrast with what North Koreans have said. While the U.S. has legitimate doubts and reservations about the intentions of Iran, Brzezinski's recommendation for the U.S. is to take these stated goals as ostensibly true and use them as a "point of departure" to move forward with negotiations.
Brzezinski also dismissed the notion that Iranians are irrational and suicidal actors. He questioned the seriousness of Israel's claims that Iran is going to act irrationally by using its first nuclear bomb on Israel the moment they have it. He recognized that "Iran is a much more complicated country than a few crazy ayatollahs and an absolutely lunatic President."
"If there are negotiations, they are going to involve a set of issues that have to be considered at the same time" including Iran's role in Afghanistan, economic issues, damages Iranians have claimed against the U.S. and vice versa. Whatever the issues involved, Brzezinski said, "it's going to be a very difficult and complex process."
"It is very good that [the President] is providing an alternative vision of the future than the previous president," and the president's speech in Cairo "suggests that he is prepared to give negotiations a serious try and accept that this complex process will need time."
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