"Don't upset me or I'll do what you want" is the subtle message that Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff was quietly delivering to NDP Leader Jack Layton during the last 12 months. Unfortunately, Layton didn't get the message fast enough, and Ignatieff did exactly what Layton was asking for and withdrew his party's support for Stephen Harper's Conservative government.
Of course, Layton was counting on a lack of courage from the Liberal leader to face the electorate at this time, when his electoral machine is not ready. But Layton made two mistakes. First, he underestimated the Liberal desperation to do something bold, something that would put the party back in the political picture after months of lethargy. Second, while the Liberals may not be ready for an election, a vote this fall would be a disaster for the NDP.
Unfortunately for Layton, the Liberal wind abruptly changed direction last month in Sudbury and he has been caught with his pants down. After ridiculing the Liberals for supporting the government 79 times, he now faces the reality of being the one supporting the Conservative government for the 80th time.
This is a decision that goes well beyond the present political debate. Layton has to decide who the New Democrats are.
Do they want to be a political party that aims to become a government, as some provincial parties have done, or remain a political lobby group that is happy to generate some good ideas implemented by others? Medicare is one of those ideas generated by the NDP and implemented by the Liberals.
There is a split in the party. There are some who are tired of being in opposition and want to be in government. Others would prefer to remain in opposition and keep preaching what is right for Canadians without being bothered by the annoying question of what is possible. Going in either direction presents some problems for the NDP leader. However, the worst decision is not to make one at all and risk losing both options.
I'm sure that during the last 12 months the ideologues have been very happy with Layton's hardline stand. Last January, he announced the NDP would vote against the Conservative budget even before it was presented. The polls, however, have shown that this tactic didn't bring any more electoral support. In fact, the NDP lost some. Now, it appears Layton may abandon the ideological approach and resort to a more pragmatic one.
It is up to the NDP leader to decide in which direction he wants to take his party. However, Layton has to understand that he can't take it in both directions at the same time; he can't simultaneously please the ideologues and the pragmatists.
After so many years in Ottawa, the NDP has to decide if it wants to be a party getting ready to be in government or a parking space for potential Liberal votes.
It's not an easy decision because the obstacle between the NDP and 24 Sussex Dr. is not the Conservatives, but the Liberals. This means that Layton's main target during a campaign should be the Liberals.
Unfortunately for him, he can't do that when the Liberals are in the opposition because it would be interpreted as an indirect alliance with the NDP's ideological enemies, the Conservatives, and upset part of his electorate.
And that's exactly where Layton is now after having been on the other side all summer.
He doesn't have a lot of time to decide, probably two weeks. In that time, Layton has to choose if he wants to attack the Liberals and upset the ideologues in his party or go after the Conservatives and help send Ignatieff to 24 Sussex, Harper to Stornoway and, in the process, himself back to Toronto.
I don't know what he is going to decide. What I do know is that the decision he must make will have an impact on the future of the NDP and on his future as leader.
For the time being, in the fight between Harper and Ignatieff, the loser is Jack Layton.
Angelo Persichilli is the political editor of Corriere Canadese. His column appears every Sunday.
Angelo Persichilli
"Don't upset me or I'll do what you want" is the subtle message that Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff was quietly delivering to NDP Leader Jack Layton during the last 12 months. Unfortunately, Layton didn't get the message fast enough, and Ignatieff did exactly what Layton was asking for and withdrew his party's support for Stephen Harper's Conservative government.
Of course, Layton was counting on a lack of courage from the Liberal leader to face the electorate at this time, when his electoral machine is not ready. But Layton made two mistakes. First, he underestimated the Liberal desperation to do something bold, something that would put the party back in the political picture after months of lethargy. Second, while the Liberals may not be ready for an election, a vote this fall would be a disaster for the NDP.
Unfortunately for Layton, the Liberal wind abruptly changed direction last month in Sudbury and he has been caught with his pants down. After ridiculing the Liberals for supporting the government 79 times, he now faces the reality of being the one supporting the Conservative government for the 80th time.
This is a decision that goes well beyond the present political debate. Layton has to decide who the New Democrats are.
Do they want to be a political party that aims to become a government, as some provincial parties have done, or remain a political lobby group that is happy to generate some good ideas implemented by others? Medicare is one of those ideas generated by the NDP and implemented by the Liberals.
There is a split in the party. There are some who are tired of being in opposition and want to be in government. Others would prefer to remain in opposition and keep preaching what is right for Canadians without being bothered by the annoying question of what is possible. Going in either direction presents some problems for the NDP leader. However, the worst decision is not to make one at all and risk losing both options.
I'm sure that during the last 12 months the ideologues have been very happy with Layton's hardline stand. Last January, he announced the NDP would vote against the Conservative budget even before it was presented. The polls, however, have shown that this tactic didn't bring any more electoral support. In fact, the NDP lost some. Now, it appears Layton may abandon the ideological approach and resort to a more pragmatic one.
It is up to the NDP leader to decide in which direction he wants to take his party. However, Layton has to understand that he can't take it in both directions at the same time; he can't simultaneously please the ideologues and the pragmatists.
After so many years in Ottawa, the NDP has to decide if it wants to be a party getting ready to be in government or a parking space for potential Liberal votes.
It's not an easy decision because the obstacle between the NDP and 24 Sussex Dr. is not the Conservatives, but the Liberals. This means that Layton's main target during a campaign should be the Liberals.
Unfortunately for him, he can't do that when the Liberals are in the opposition because it would be interpreted as an indirect alliance with the NDP's ideological enemies, the Conservatives, and upset part of his electorate.
And that's exactly where Layton is now after having been on the other side all summer.
He doesn't have a lot of time to decide, probably two weeks. In that time, Layton has to choose if he wants to attack the Liberals and upset the ideologues in his party or go after the Conservatives and help send Ignatieff to 24 Sussex, Harper to Stornoway and, in the process, himself back to Toronto.
I don't know what he is going to decide. What I do know is that the decision he must make will have an impact on the future of the NDP and on his future as leader.
For the time being, in the fight between Harper and Ignatieff, the loser is Jack Layton.
Angelo Persichilli is the political editor of Corriere Canadese. His column appears every Sunday.
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